This report deals with the complications associated with risk prognoses. Firstly, the recent literature was investigated about the advance calculation of road hazard in relation to mobility. The literature study was based on the SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research Prognosis Model design. It can be established that in the Netherlands the type of collision associated with accidents is sooner introduced as a variable in the road hazard process than in most other countries. The second part of the report concerns the problem types which can be anticipated with the concrete definition of the Prognosis Model. A particularly important issue is how to obtain or construct series of reliable and consistent data offering the required degree of detail over a sufficiently lengthy period. Possible solutions to the various problems which can at least suffice for the first version of the Prognosis Model have been suggested. The third part of the report concludes in general that the literature supports: (1) the SWOV Prognosis Model design; (2) the introduction of the associated collision concept; (3) the classification of the hazard process into an accident phase and a victim phase; and (4) the disaggregation on the basis of road type, transport mode, age and gender. However, a simultaneous combination of these elements was not found.
Abstract