Road safety has been considered of great interest in recent years. The policy in this field comprises a range of quantitative aims that make the development of models to estimate road safety very desirable. The first steps thus far concern models dedicated to a single crossing or road section. This approach is very pragmatic and well suited for the short term. This paper describes a recently developed model by means of multiple regression in order to estimate road safety for the long term. The model estimates the expected injury accidents per area of the Amsterdam region. Starting points are: (1) the municipal settlements: inhabitants, jobs and shops; (2) the road infrastructure: road sections, controlled and uncontrolled crossings and free bicycle or bus lanes; and (3) the use of this infrastructure: traffic achievements of bicycles and cars. Accidents registered in the past were used as independent variables. The entire model comprises a number of submodels of which one half is dedicated to crossings and the other half to road sections. Both of them cover the following submodels: four submodels for the transport means such as walking, cycling, moped riding and car driving; and a submodel that describes the overall accident level, regardless the means of transport. Important application of the models will be to provide an insight into the effectivity of road safety policy, for example, whether or not to have free bicycle or bus lanes, and reducing or keeping out cars. (A)
Abstract