In this report, road safety developments in the Netherlands during 1948-1998 were analysed at the macroscopic level. The purpose of these analyses was to find models that, so accurately and simply possible, describe developments of mobility (exposure) and casualty risk. Based on this, prognoses were made for future developments in mobility, casualty risk, numbers of road deaths and in-patients up to 2010. These were then compared with the target numbers for road deaths and in-patients for 2010. The following annual numbers for the Netherlands were used in this analysis: the total number of road deaths, the total number of registered in-patients, and the total number of motor vehicle kilometres driven. These last have been used as an indication of Dutch mobility. Apart from these, two derived variables (from these annual totals) play a central role in the analyses: (1) fatal or death risk; and (2) non-fatal risk. When compared with the target numbers of road deaths for 2010, the prognoses show that these target numbers appear achievable. This is on condition that the effectiveness of the road safety policy does, during the coming years, result in a greater annual decrease in fatal risk than was achieved during 1991-1998. When compared with the target numbers of in-patients for 2010, the prognoses indicated that these target numbers will probably not be achieved.
Abstract