Over the past few decades, all jurisdictions in the United States and Canada have implemented some version of a Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) program to address the elevated crash risk of young and novice drivers. GDL has proven popular not only because such a licensing system makes sense but in large part because research has demonstrated its safety benefit overall, as well as in terms of the benefits of specific conditions/restrictions. Far less is known about how teens progress through GDL and trends in licensing rates. National licensing data are often inaccurate in terms of counting the numbers of licensed teen drivers overall or at different stages of GDL (learner, intermediate and full license), primarily because of the lack of licensing data counts in most states. The purposes of this study are to examine, in detail, license patterns and progression through GDL in one Canadian province (Ontario) and one U.S. state (Oregon) with different GDL programs, making it possible to examine how different features (e.g., licensing at a younger or older age, a shorter or longer minimum learner permit period) influence license rates and progression through GDL. Descriptive and regression analyses were used to analyze licensing data on instruction permit issue dates, intermediate license issue dates, and driver education completion dates as well as date of birth and sex for individuals entering the GDL program over several years in Ontario and Oregon. Regression (linear and logistic) models helped to determine what GDL features are associated with progression through the learner stage and the intermediate license stage. The descriptive analyses showed that although in both jurisdictions, many drivers enter in the learner period at the youngest age allowed by the GDL program, almost 57% of Ontario drivers and about 20% of Oregon drivers enter the learner stage at an older age. The analyses also showed that almost 20% of Oregon drivers and 37% of Ontario drivers were nonprogressors in the learner stage (i.e., someone who has not progressed to the intermediate stage after being eligible to do so for at least one year). The regression analyses suggested that most of all the socio-demographic characteristics examined (driver education status, sex, age at license issuance) were associated with progression through GDL. The logistic regression analyses show that drivers who have taken driver education are more likely progressors than drivers not going through driver education programs at the learner stage in both jurisdictions. In Ontario, a driver obtaining the learner license at a younger age is more likely to progress through the learner stage than an older driver. It is similar at the intermediate stage but the effect is less pronounced. In Oregon, a younger driver is more likely to non-progress than an older driver in the learner stage. Although male drivers tend to progress faster than females, the difference is very small. Conclusion. There are safety benefits associated with new drivers remaining in the learner stage because they are driving under supervision which is a low-risk activity, assuming they are not violating this requirement. Safety benefits may also arise from the 68.3% of Ontario drivers not progressing from the intermediate stage to a full license, when they are eligible to do so, because they are still under the restrictions/conditions of that stage. Such is not the case in Oregon where after 12 months on a provisional license, or at age 18, the restrictions are automatically lifted. The safety benefits of the provisional license could potentially be enhanced by not allowing premature graduation at age 18. Other policy options emerging from this research could include: applying GDL to inexperienced beginners regardless of age, which is the practice in Ontario; increasing the minimum mandatory learner age from 15 years to 16 years; and eliminating the time discount for driver education to ensure teen drivers remain in the protective learner stage for the full minimum mandatory 12-month period. Further research is also needed to identify why new drivers in Ontario do, or do not, progress through the GDL licensing stages when eligible to do so, and the extent to which nonprogression reduces crash risk; to determine why some Oregon teens delay licensure and how older teens who by-pass the GDL system progress through the licensing system; and, to determine why Oregon teens who take driver education progress through the learner period in fewer months and what implications this has on their crash risk. (Author/publisher)
Abstract