The management of a highway asset has several levels, one of which is the development of project level asset management plans for each 'uniform' management section. An important part of such management is the use of reliable and realistic pavement performance models, thereby allowing forward predictions of future condition based on present condition under a user-defined range of future loading and maintenance scenarios. Such prediction models permit the development of life-cycle cost-based optimal asset management plans, both in terms of intervention type (maintenance, rehabilitation or new investment) and its timing. This paper progressively develops the following issues: (1) initial concepts supporting the description of pavement performance modelling; (2) the application of these concepts as illustrated by the ARRB Project Level Pavement Performance Model; (3) the importance of road deterioration modelling within a framework of road asset management; and (4) consideration of the border between the expectation of the reasonableness of model prediction and the need for model calibration. (a).
Abstract