Road casualty numbers for Great Britain have been forecast to 2030 in total and for groups of road users by extrapolating from casualty rates per head of population, per driver, per unit of traffic and per unit of passenger travel, as appropriate. These rates have then been used to estimate the number of casualties in 2020, 2025 and 2030, using the Office for National Statistics Principal Population Projection based on 2010 and the DfT 2013 Traffic Forecast. The spread of projections gives an indication of the confidence that can be attached to a figure for probable casualties in 2030. For all groups for which reliable projections are possible, the number of casualties is projected to have fallen by 2030. For all road users, deaths are projected to fall from 1,754 in 2012 to about 1000 in 2030 (likely range 924 to 1,166; full range 639 to 1,388); serious casualties to fall from 23,039 to about 11,000 (likely range 9,081 to 11,343; full range 9,081 to 13,847). Slight casualties are likely to be about 150,000 (likely range 143,400 to 174,200; full range 83,292 to 229,053), and casualties of all severities, 162,000 (full range 93,000 to 244,000). At 2012 prices and valuations, prevention of these projected numbers of casualties in 2030 would be valued at about £6 billion. On the same basis the estimated value of preventing all road casualties (about 3.5 million) in the two decades ending 2030 would be about £160 billion. This includes about one third of a million casualties killed or seriously injured with an estimated prevention value of £110 billion. (Author/publisher)
Abstract