The paper summarises data from Australian government sources that show the decline in public transport use per capita and in relative terms as a mode of travel. The data also shows that, despite the fact that it caters for less than 10 per cent of passenger trips, public transport has received twice as much Victorian government budget funding as have roads in recent years. It points out that the level of public transport subsidies per capita increases with the extent of public transport in Australian cities and questions whether an increase in public transport expenditure can be justified on social equity grounds, since the inherent subsidy benefits higher income rather than lower income people. The densities of Australian cities are low relative to the USA and Europe and experience lower vehicle-related emission and pollution levels, so that overseas experiences should not be directly translated to Australian cities. The Grubler model of transport infrastructure trends shows that the decline in public transport will not be reversed by increased public transport expenditures. The model also indicates that road transport in Australia is in a very mature stage and shows signs of being replaced by the next transport technology stage. (a).
Abstract