The analysis of crash rates among young and/or new drivers in the province of Quebec (Canada) had led to two main observations that have determined the composition of the graduated licensing system (GLS) introduced in 1997. Firstly: during the first year of driving, crash rates are very high and similar, independent of age (inexperience effect); which suggested lengthening to 12 months the learning period (accompanying rider, zero BAC and ceiling of four demerit points) for all new drivers, with the possibility of reducing the learning period to eight months by taking a driving course. Secondly: as of the second year of driving, the crash rate of drivers aged 25 and over drops more quickly than among the 16-24 age group. For this age group, the crash rate drops slightly but remains high and relatively constant (effect of experience limited by risk-taking), which justifies imposition of a probationary licence (zero BAC and ceiling of four demerit points) for a two-year period applying specifically to this age group. Despite being in effect only relatively recently, the Quebec GLS has been the subject of a preliminary evaluation. Results indicate that the net (six-month) effect of GLS is to reduce fatalities by 28.1 percent and injuries by 9.8 percent. Such preliminary results must be interpreted with caution and need to be confirmed over a longer period. (A)
Abstract