Monthly numbers of road crashes in Victoria, Australia, increased gradually from 1983 to 1988, before falling sharply over a period of about two years, and remaining at a low level until the end of 1992. In the late 1980s, the Victorian Transport Accident Commission (TAC) greatly increased the level of government funding for road safety television advertising and police enforcement. The TAC-funded countermeasures focused on the reduction of speeding and drink driving. The dramatic improvement in road safety in Victoria was the subject of a major program of research at the Monash University Accident Research Centre (MUARC). MUARC researchers concluded that the TAC-funded campaigns had been very successful. In particular, they concluded that very high levels of television advertising were cost effective. The main MUARC findings for Melbourne are re-investigated in this report. It is noted that crash numbers started to fall well before the TAC-funded countermeasures were implemented. The MUARC regression analyses of observational data were considered to be insufficiently robust to justify the conclusions reached. A parsimonious `three factor' model was able to explain the Victorian crash trends in terms of gradual, long-term improvements in road safety, seasonal influences, and changes in the economy. The three factor model was replicated against New Zealand crashes from 1990 to 1997; and it provided a better fit than did a model that included a variable representing the Supplementary Road Safety Package (a campaign modelled on the `Victorian experience'). (a).
Abstract