Recent accident figures indicate that road safety in the Netherlands is not progressing as it should. If considerable additional effort is not invested, the objectives specified by policy will not be reached. This is the conclusion drawn in this report, following extensive analysis of the available accident figures up to and including 1995, in combination with explanatory factors such as exposure data, population data, figures regarding the number of cars on Dutch roads, etc. The analysis also concerns developments in the number of road accident victims and the risks (in terms of victims per vehicle kilometre) run by the various categories of road user. The aim of the analysis is to pinpoint those modes of transport, age groups or other relevant categories where extra problems are encountered. The available data are used to illustrate the situation for all groups. Separate attention is paid to the ongoing largest group of fatal road accident victims as regards size: motorists. Special attention is paid to the differences between age groups and gender with respect to risk (in this case, the probability of a motorist becoming involved in an injury accident per vehicle kilometre). Young, male motorists stand out in a negative sense in this area. One element of significance for the overall road safety in the Netherlands is the changing composition of the population in terms of age groups. This is primarily the result of a decline in the number of births during the 1970s and the increase of the number of elderly people. The ensuing ‘dip' in births has slowly moved beyond the poorly scoring young age groups (15 to 20 years) as regards accident risk. Due to the considerable reduction in the number of potential road users in this age group, a marked reduction in the number of road accident victims has also occurred, in parallel. As the years progress, this reduction will become apparent in the category of road users aged 20 years and above. Another demographic development, that of an increase in the proportion of elderly road users, will have a negative effect: as a result, the absolute level of road hazard for the elderly will increase in time, the more so because as age increases, there is also question of a rise in vulnerability. A special analysis is devoted to explanations of long and medium term developments. Although no express statements can be made because the relevant theories have not been fully evaluated, it is likely that the reduction in the risk of road accident victims has, for the moment, come to an end. The ever increasing (mainly motorised) participation in traffic, linked to a plateau in the level of risk, unfortunately heralds a new period of growing road hazard. If considerable extra effort is not invested, the road safety objective (25% fewer fatalities and injured in the year 2000 with respect to 1985) will probably not be realised. At the end of 1995, a reduction of only 7% with respect to the year of comparison, 1985, was achieved. The short term developments are considered separately. It is probable that, due to the rise in the total level of road hazard for two years consecutively, this can no longer be viewed as an accidental fluctuation, although the year 1994 does seem to be a negative exception in a number of respects.
Abstract