The 2007 Minnesota Next Generation Energy Act established goals for reducing statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 15% by 2015, 30% by 2025, and 80% by 2050, relative to 2005 levels. This research investigates strategies for meeting those reductions in Minnesota’s transportation sector, which produces approximately 24% of total state GHG emissions. The study focuses on three types of emission-reduction strategies: improving vehicle fuel economy, decreasing the carbon content of fuel, and reducing the number of vehicle-miles traveled. The research uses a quantitative model to project GHG reductions from specific strategies in 2015 and 2025, and considers 2050 reductions qualitatively. Modeled projections, which depend strongly on input assumptions, lead us to the following main conclusions: 1. The2015 and 2025 goals can be met but require a combination of the three strategy types, such as a light duty vehicle GHG emissions standard, a low-carbon fuel standard, and comprehensive “smart growth” development. 2. GHG reductions from enacted or proposed light duty vehicle efficiency standardsfor Minnesota are modest compared to those that would come from followingnear-term standards other countries have enacted. This indicates greater GHG reductions from light duty vehicles are very achievable with availabletechnologies now. 3. Life-cycle emissions reductions from low carbon fuels are strongly dependent on feedstocks and production methods. 4. Changes in vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) have a significant impact on meeting the reduction targets, and increases in VMT can offset GHG reductions elsewhere.
Abstract