Reference prognosis for the Road Safety Outlook 2020; The results of the reference prognosis without adjustments. This report is a background document to the Road Safety Outlook 2020 (Wesemann & Weijermars, 2011). This outlook makes a prognosis of the road safety level in the Netherlands for an integral implementation of the present Strategic Plan for Road Safety 2008-2020 (SPV). First a reference prognosis was made: an estimate of the development of the numbers of road casualties if the present road safety policy were to be continued. This reference prognosis is initially determined by two developments in relation with traffic: 1) the development of the risk so far, extrapolated for the year 2020, and 2) the mobility that is expected for the years until 2020. It is likely, however, that the risk will develop differently in the future than it has done according to the extrapolation of the developments until now. This can, for example, be caused by the implementation of ‘new measures’ from the SPV that are expected to have extra effect, but also by ‘current measures’ that may be expected to have less or, rather, more effect on road safety in the future; see the Strategic Plan for Road Safety. The initial reference prognosis is adjusted for this kind of developments in the main report (Wesemann & Weijermars, 2011). The present report gives a detailed discussion of the reference prognosis without adjustments. The basic ideas of the method are discussed and the results are elaborately illustrated in figures.
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