A regression model has been developed for the projection of mileage travelled by motor vehicles in a metropolitan region. The model represents such a mileage projection for the tri-state region, but its framework should be applicable to other regions as well. The model was built on the premise that travel parameters are influenced by the urban form which is primarily characterized by the distribution of population densities. Upon evidence of a functional relationship between population densities and trip generation rates, the vehicular travel mileage was correlated with vehicular trip-end densities. Statistically meaningful correlation between these variables verified the study's premise. Since it has been shown that population distribution patterns remain relatively stable in time, it was reasoned that the patterns of regional travel parameters should likewise remain stable. Consequently, a projective model was developed. It utilizes annual travel mileage per vehicle, which has remained stable over the past decades, and constant average miles per trip to establish the projection control totals. /author/.
Abstract