Rekeningrijden of brandstofbelasting ? Bewerking van een bijdrage aan het symposium `Vervoerseconomie in beweging', ter gelegenheid van het afscheid van prof. dr. mr. J.G.W. Simons, gehouden op 12 maart 1998 aan de Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam.

This article presents a way of estimating the advantages of pay-driving and of comparing this to potential general rises in fuel taxes. The index-linked profit is calculated for every traffic group where levies will change as a half change in levy multiplied by the created traffic increase and decrease levels. It is not possible to calculate exactly what the advantage will be in the Netherlands. The author has, however, endeavoured to make estimates based on hypotheses relating to plausible magnitude, both for the levy differentiation to be introduced and for the effect of this on traffic. This caused benefits that were more than sufficient to make refunding of the cost of the apparatus required for the project possible. As long as no decisions are taken on tariffs, and no experience is gained on how this really affects traffic, the predicted advantages will remain uncertain. The author has only been able to prove that pay-driving may, in theory, cause an index-linked profit level that will be high enough to cancel out costs. Further refining of the calculations may be done by any analyst, from his own basic viewpoint. It is a calculation method that is simple and easy to repeat. (A)