The flow-on to other destinations from an initial car tourist choice can be represented as a Markov process. However, there is a weakness in representing the impact of a destination becoming more attractive only in the initial choice. A remote destination, which has become more attractive but is normally reached via other destinations, will be modelled as showing little gain. To properly represent the effects in all cases, it is much more realistic to model the main impact as a shift in transition probabilities. The Markov model has also been used to represent the succession of urban trips by people engaged in home duties or part-time work. Here, there is no natural time step, analogous to the overnight stays of tourists, and there is a high probability of leaving or returning home at any time of day. In either case, the relevance of a Markov model depends on how much a policy or structural change is likely to alter the transition probabilities. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E210528.
Abstract