THE CASUALTY RISK DUE TO HAZARDOUS MATERIAL RELEASES FROM RAILROAD CARS IN THE U.S. IS ESTIMATED FOR A RECENT YEAR. APPROXIMATE FLOW PATTERNS OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS IN THAT YEAR ARE GENERATED USING A NATIONAL NETWORK MODEL. ALTERNATIVE FLOW PATTERNS REPRESENTING POPULATION-AVOIDANCE REROUTING POLICIES ARE ALSO GENERATED, AND SOME AGGREGATE IMPACTS ARE ESTIMATED WITH AND WITHOUT TRACK UPGRADING. WE FIND THAT POPULATION EXPOSURE CAN BE REDUCED 25-50% BY REROUTING, AT THE COST OF A 15-30% INCREASE IN TRAFFIC CIRCUITY. WE ALSO FORMULATE AND APPLY A RISK MODEL WHICH SHOWS THAT EXTENSIVE ROUTING CHANGES CAN REDUCE CASUALTIES BY ABOUT 50%, BUT THAT EXTENSIVE UPGRADING WITH OR WITHOUT REROUTING CAN BE EVEN MORE EFFECTIVE. THE EFFECTS ON URBAN AREAS OF THE HYPOTHETICAL CHANGES ARE DISCUSSED, BUT FINANCIAL IMPACTS ON THE RAILROADS ARE NOT ADDRESSED. (Author/publisher).
Abstract