One main shortcoming in the use of life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for analysing long-term infrastructure projects is the uncertainty in the value of the LCCA parameters. Probabilistic LCCA incorporates these elements of uncertainty by assigning probabilistic values to cost and performance parameters. Studies that have performed probabilistic LCCA in the infrastructure domain propose a probability-based framework for alternative comparison. Although such frameworks convey a wealth of probabilistic information, they are not well suited to decision making. This study proposes a risk-based framework that is similar to techniques used in portfolio risk management. To illustrate the use of such a framework, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic LCCA for a highway project. Two highway investment opportunities with varying risks and returns are analysed. The decision framework is used to compare the simulation results with some common investment opportunities in the market. This framework enables private-sector investors to assess the relative risks and returns of alternative infrastructure projects. The fact that similar frameworks are used in the financial investment domain makes this approach suitable for the economic analysis of privatised infrastructure.
Abstract