This paper explores the possibility that accidents are caused not only by human error but also by the human tendency to take risks and gamble. The author's form of risk homeostasis theory assumes that: (1) everyone has a propensity to take risks, that varies from one individual to another and is influenced by the potential rewards of risk taking; (2) perceptions of risk are influenced by one's own and other people's experience of accident losses; (3) individual risk-taking decisions balance perception of risk against propensity to take risks; and (4) an individual's accident losses, on average, increase with the number of risks that he takes. However, it seems very difficult to prove or refute. People willingly take some risks, but avoid 'excessive' risks; most people's attitudes are between extreme caution and recklessness. The difficulties of measuring risk, as an interactive problem, are illustrated with reference to the wide variety of road traffic users and others involved in road transport. British road accident statistics for children for the years 1927 and 1987 are discussed. Parents now protect their children much more from road accidents, but this could delay rather than remove the accident costs of survival training. For the covering abstract see IRRD 870346.
Abstract