This paper examines the association between changes in numbers of casualties in road accidents in London and changes in London Transport fares over the period January 1975 to December 1990. Exceptional changes in bus and underground rail fares in London in the early 1980s had prompted analyses of the effects of fare levels and petrol prices upon the numbers of road casualties in London. One of the methods then developed using data for 1975-1984 is applied in this paper to data extending to 1990. Estimates for the effects of normal changes in fares and petrol prices upon numbers of casualties among different kinds of road user in London are confirmed, though still with wide confidence intervals. Earlier estimates of the number of extra casualties associated with a period of unusually high fares in the early 1980s are shown to have probably been too high. (Author/publisher).
Abstract