For this study, road crash recidivists were defined to be those car drivers and motor cycle riders who had been involved in two or more casualty crashes within the four-year period (1989-1992). For each high risk 'case', one medium risk and two low risk controls having the same gender and year of birth were selected for comparison. All drivers and riders were followed to the end of 1998 to ascertain their crash involvement over a ten-year period. The aim was to estimate the relative risks of future crash involvement for high and medium risk drivers and riders compared with low risk controls. Using Cox proportional hazard models, the time-to-crash (or not) in the six year follow-up period (1993-1998) was estimated. It was concluded that high risk drivers and riders were 3 to 5 times more likely to crash again in the follow-up period than medium or low risk controls. (Author/publisher)
Abstract