Abstract
SNUS is an aggregate monthly time-series Road Demand and Accident model for Germany. It is based on and elaborates on existing reference models (TAG-1 for France, SNUS-1 for Germany, TRULS-1 for Norway, DRAG for Quebec). It models road demand based on a structural, multi-variable approach that notably includes prices, socioeconomic factors, regulations, weather and consumer preferences. Accidents and their severity are analysed within a three-layer structure to capture substitution effects between demand, accidents for a given demand level, and severity for a given demand level. Our experience suggests that policy-sensitive variables can well be identified and included in all three parts of the model. (Author/publisher)