The objective of the project was to provide policy makers with information about the likely effects of changes in travel mode on road casualties. Travel estimates from an earlier travel survey were updated by applying current population and vehicle use. Although this survey is now quite old, it was the only Australia-wide data which provided breakdowns by gender, age, time of travel and travel mode. Fatalities and serious injuries for each of the cells in the analysis were divided by the travel estimates to provide fatality rates. Scenarios were developed to illustrate the consequences of modal shift on fatalities and serious injuries. Fatality rates for all classes of road user were found to have decreased since 1985. Travel as a car passenger was the safest mode, followed closely by travel as a car driver. Travel by bicycle and walking were the next safest, and motorcycling the least safe. Scenarios which involved increases in walking, bicycling or motorcycling were estimated to produce increases in fatalities and injuries, particularly the latter. Fatality rates and serious injury rates for motorcyclists during commuting times were approximately half what they were at other times. Riders aged 40 and over had almost double the fatality and serious injury rates of those aged 25 and under. Switching from travelling as a car driver to travel as a car passenger was likely to have a small beneficial effect, but switching from car driving to travel by motorcycle is likely to substantially increase deaths and injuries. Changes from car driving to other modes would also result in increases in the road toll, but by smaller amounts. Switching from travelling as a car driver to travelling as a bus passenger would have little effect, gains from safer bus travel being negated by losses due to greater pedestrian exposure. Projected increases in freight movements also present a major challenge. A doubling in the freight task from its present levels would result in approximately 290 additional deaths and 6,500 additional serious injuries per year. These estimates are sensitive to the mix of vehicles which would be used to carry out the expanded freight task. Strategies to address the threats to maintaining progress in reducing road deaths and injuries are suggested, including ongoing monitoring of exposure, ensuring low-cost alternatives to motorcycling, improving the safety of bicycling, walking and freight operations, and encouraging travel as a car passenger. (Author/publisher)
Abstract