There is conflicting information about road transports fuel consumption in China. This is awkward for establishing a firm reference value and problematic for projections under the highly dynamic conditions of booming Chinese transportation. This paper reviews existing knowledge and calculates the on-road fuel consumption top-down and bottom-up. Our new estimate of about 76-87 Mtoe petroleum fuel consumption in the year 2000 is the highest so far published. The paper will calculate exhaust emissions from on-road vehicles and identify the most important vehicle categories. For gasoline vehicles the paper will calculate lower emissions of CO and HC than previous authors as this paper assumes more effective emission control technology. However the paper will estimate higher emissions of NOx and PM as these are dominated by diesel vehicles, for which the paper has determined a much higher activity. Up to the year 2030 a strong growth in transportation is expected with the booming economy and rising income levels. According to new calculations this may lead to about a factor 7 growth in fuel demand by passenger cars until 2030, even with significant improvements of their fuel economy. However, the expansion of the commercial vehicles and their technical level will determine the overall growth in fuel demand. In the absence of significant efficiency improvements the overall transport fuel demand can increase until 2030 to about 540 to 600 Mtoe.
Abstract