This study examined pilots' decisions to continue or divert from a visual flight rules (VFR) flight into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) during a dynamic simulation of a cross-country flight. Pilots encountered IMC either early or late into the flight, and the amount of time and distance pilots flew into the adverse weather prior to diverting was recorded. Results reveal pilots who encountered the deteriorating weather earlier in the flight flew longer into the weather prior to diverting and had more optimistic estimates of weather conditions than did pilots who encountered the deteriorating weather later in the flight. Both the time and distance traveled into the weather prior to diverting were negatively correlated with pilots' prior flight experience. These findings suggest that VFR flight into IMC may be attributable, at least in part, to poor situation assessment and experience rather than to motivational judgment that induces risk-taking behavior as more time and effort are invested in a flight. Actual/potential applications of this research are given.
Abstract