As part of the Flexible Infrastructure theme within the Roads to the Future project, a pilot study called Route 26 has been carried out. Its objective is to break the impasse in the current policy preparations and to find sustainable solutions for problems that appear insoluble. An essential feature of any solution will be its success over both the short term and the long term. Route 26 takes the form of a game simulation. Parties involved in the field are invited to contribute solutions for the interconnected space/traffic problems of a fictional location called Maasmere. During workshops in the game simulation, the solutions are compared in respect of each other and subsequently evaluated. The aim of this study is to draw attention to shortcomings that may be inherent to the traditional approach of addressing sticking points, which involves a natural tendency to focus on the short term. Therefore the central focus in this study is the long term developemnt of the traffic situation in Maasmere. The starting point for this study has been provided by the two solutions (options) that were presented during the workshop for Maasmere's complex of spatial-traffic problems, the North Option and the South Option. A further situation has been created called Base Situation: the current situation . It has been created so that it can be compared with the long-term outcomes of the fictional scenarios. In addition to that, two CPB scenarios (European Co-ordination and Global Competition) describe the future socio-economic development as well as the related traffic situation. The two options, North and South, are coupled to the two scenarios European Coordination and Global Competition. This results in the four alternatives explored in this report. To calculate the load on the network, two traffic assignment models were used: TransCad, a macroscopic equilibrium traffic assignment model and Paramics, a micro-simulation model. Based on the results of the traffic assignment calculations and simulations the following conclusions can be drawn about the quality of the traffic situation in the long term: (1) the proposed traffic measures cannot prevent the quality of the traffic situation in the HWN and OWN network components decreasing substantially. The results show an approximate doubling in journey time during the rush hour; (2) throughout the entire rush hour period congestion occurs in large parts of the network; (3) the planned developments to the north of the river (North Option) have a less favourable effect on mobility growth than planned developments to south of the river (South Option); (4) if we assume that mobility growth can be described according to the Global Competition scenario, we must be prepared for greater congestion than developments along the lines of the European Co-ordination scenario would incur. (A)
Abstract