In an environment of uncertainty scenario planning can offer support to decision-making. This article explains how, on a regional level, scenario planning can be given substance concerning mobility of persons and freight, and economy. For these purposes, an interregional dynamic model, known as MOBILEC (MOBILity/EConomy) is used. This model describes the relationship between economy, mobility, infrastructure, and other regional features. The main characteristic of the model is that it shows how both economy and mobility are influenced. The model has been applied to three Dutch regions. Long-term projections until 2030 on mobility and economic issues within the province of Utrecht are presented, according to four economic environment scenarios and five mobility policy variants. Apart from anything else, this gives an idea of the importance of a mobility policy concerning economic growth, growth that will, in turn, influence the mobility development. Finally, attention is paid to other scenarios and policy variants in the field of mobility policy and spatial economic policy, the effects of which can be estimated with the help of MOBILEC.
Abstract