Estimated number of road fatalities due to distraction : an update. In reaction to a new campaign on attention in traffic that will begin in September 2015, SWOV has re-estimated the extent of the problem of distraction. The message of the campaign is that social media and driving or cycling do not go together. Therefore, in estimating the number of deaths due to distraction, specific attention has been paid to the possible effects of sending and reading text messages and to the use of social networking sites. This report is an update of the SWOV report Estimated number of road fatalities due to distraction by Hagenzieker & Stelling (2013). The only available figures on the safety effects of distraction, concern the share of crashes in which distraction has played a role. These figures are mostly provided by international studies, which have many methodological limitations. Furthermore, no knowledge is available about the prevalence of distraction, that is how often and for how long road users are engaged in different types of distraction when on the road. It is therefore difficult to estimate the number of road deaths in the Netherlands due to distraction. On the other hand, it is clear that distraction leads to a worse performance of the traffic task and that distraction contributes significantly to the occurrence of crashes. On the basis of the existing research it is only possible to indicate a bandwidth of the number of road deaths in the Netherlands with respect to crashes in which distraction played a part. Since, to our knowledge, no new studies on the share of crashes due to distraction have been carried out since 2013, the annual number of road fatalities can still be estimated to be at least several dozens, with an upper limit of more than one hundred. How many of these fatalities are the result of sending or reading text messages or of using other functions of the smartphone cannot be said with certainty. It is clear, however, that these activities are among the most dangerous forms of distraction. Since in general smartphone use is increasing, one would also expect the road safety problems due to smartphone use to increase. However, for various reasons this is unknown. The fact that more people own and use a smartphone, does not necessarily mean that the smartphone is also used more in traffic; there is still insufficient information on this issue. In addition, one would need to know the type of use in traffic (e.g. phone calls, texting, navigation) and by what type of road user (e.g. experience, age, mode of transport) to be able to estimate the consequences for road safety. Finally, it is also still unclear how the use and the risk will develop in the coming years. For example, at present the elderly still hardly use a smartphone in traffic. A shift is likely to occur in years to come when the younger drivers who are presently engaged in frequent smartphone use, get older and will possibly also use the smartphone in traffic. On this issue there is also insufficient information.
Abstract