This report is a scoping document aimed at establishing how road deterioration (RD) models can be developed on a probabilistic basis. Deterministic RD models provide an average estimate to a future condition which is not necessarily likely to be achieved given the variability of pavement performance. A probabilistic approach can assign various probabilities to the future conditions of a pavement (the dependent variable). The report also considers the applicability of probabilistic RD model approaches to both a network and project level. A previous survey of practitioners, aimed at finding what type of RD models they wish to use in a pavement life-cycle costing context at a project level, found that most practitioners would consider using both probabilistic and deterministic RD models. (Author/publisher)
Abstract