The efficacy of targets for the reduction of road accident fatalities was investigated using data from 11 countries with targets compared with similar countries without targets. The data were analysed using fixed effects and random effects models. Countries with targets generally had 7% fewer fatalities than comparable countries without targets over an 8-year period. Ambitious targets and long-term targets increased safety performance more than small targets and short-term targets, respectively. National government targets were more effective than local government targets. There was no relationship between how ambitious a target was and the likelihood that it would be fulfilled. The majority of targets had not been achieved. It is noted that the countries that set targets may have provided a self-selecting group who were concerned about road safety and implemented more road safety measures, so that these countries might have performed better even if no targets had been set. It was also not possible to rule out the effects of economic prosperity, which increases the number of vehicles on the road and also the absolute number of accidents.
Abstract