A simulation of traffic crashes into the 21st century.

Major reductions in the number of traffic crashes of various severities in Australia over the past 30 years have led some to think of a Zero Road Toll target as being both desirable and feasible in the near future. However, a number of demographic and travel behaviour changes have been occurring which will cast serious doubt on the feasibility of such a target. It is likely that the number of crashes involving older people may increase in the future. For this reason, this paper describes the development and application of a simulation model that predicts the number of crashes by various demographic groups in future years. The model shows that, assuming no change in crash rates within demographic groups, the number of fatal and serious injury crashes for young males and females (less than 30 years of age) remains essentially constant over the next 30 years, while middle-aged (30 to 60) males and females will show a 25 percent increase in the number of fatal and serious injury crashes. The real growth area is for people over 60, where a 175 percent increase in fatal and serious injury crashes can be expected. Males over 60 will experience a 150 percent increase in fatal and serious injury crashes, while females over 60 will experience a 200 percent increase in fatal and serious injury crashes. The analysis demonstrates that known demographic changes will place severe pressures on the vision of a Zero Road Toll. Substantial reductions in crash rates within demographic groups will be needed to counter the increases in the numbers of people in demographic groups which have a higher crash involvement rate. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E205861.