Some attempts towards improved traffic forecasting procedures for Japanese expressways.

Author(s)
Ohta, K. & Harata, N.
Year
Abstract

This article describes the traffic forecasting procedures used for Japanese urban and inter urban tolled motorways and discusses some attempts to improve these. The traffic forecasting procedure for motorways is a conventional aggregate sequential trip generation, distribution and diversion/ assignment model system based on the national travel survey. Major problems and limitations of this procedure are presented and discussed with special attention given to: (a) forecasting efficiency (ease of use, and the time and cost involved in obtaining an accurate forecast); (b) forecasting accuracy; and (c) the difficulties in obtaining forecasts which are relevant to particular traffic policy. Methods used to improve the motorway traffic forecasts are then presented. These include: (a) improvement of the diversion curve by segmentation based on either trip length, or by time of day; (b) the application of aggregate logic type diversion curves and (c) the application of a vehicle based disaggregate logit type route choice model.

Request publication

2 + 16 =
Solve this simple math problem and enter the result. E.g. for 1+3, enter 4.

Publication

Library number
C 668 (In: C 658) /72 / IRRD 842386
Source

In: Transport planning methods : proceedings of seminar D (P306) held at the 16th PTRC European Transport and Planning Summer Annual Meeting, University of Bath, England, September 12-16, 1988, p. 111-122, 8 ref.

Our collection

This publication is one of our other publications, and part of our extensive collection of road safety literature, that also includes the SWOV publications.