Stagnation of economic growth has a dual effect on the demand for public transport. The value and even the sign of its income-elasticity is uncertain and depends on the level of car ownership and the degree of substitution between car and public transport. The effect on various market-segments and different public transport modes will be described. The instability of crude oil prices is one of the causes of stagnation but it also influences modal-choice in passenger transport. Changes in the petrol price and their effects on the demand for public transport are discussed. Stagnation might cause an increase in the use of public transport. It is possible then that public transport becomes a victim of its own success; more passenger kilometres seem to cause either growing deficits or higher fares and downward adaptations of the level of service. After an analysis of the cost structure of different transport modes it is shown that such a gloomy picture is far too pessimistic. The flexibility in changing supply offers public transport companies the opportunity to limit cost rises. Stagnation also means that the main cost factor, labour, might increase less than the fare level and the cost of living, thus having a positive effect on the financial results. Careful planning of public transport will avoid the negative effects of stagnation and needs to anticipate an economic revival. Finally, the necessity of integral public- and private transport planning will be discussed. For the covering abstract of the conference see irrd 276520.
Abstract