The purpose of this paper is to assess the current capacity and state-of-the-art of economic and analytic model building to assist policymakers in relating transportation system choices to economic development consequenses and requirements. Results of this assessment are in terms of decision-making benefits and costs flowing from both likely and more problematic methodoligical and data base improvements. The difficulties of meeting decision-makers' needs are spelled out and ways of meeting these needs identified. The spectrum of techniques and performance indicators investigated include: micro and macro; transportation demand and supply ; partial and general equilibrum modeling; direct, indirect, and induced effects; effectiveness and efficiency measures; and descriptive as well as normative techniques. Both traditional (e.g., GNP, national income and employment) as well as non-traditional (e.g., national security, international competitiveness, distributional, and wealth effects) economic development performance indicators are examined, in relation to a wide range of transportation systems variables. A specific transport system change is used as an illustration of ways to combine the use of several analytic approaches in a decision-making context. Alternative strategies for improving the state-of-the-art, where policy and decisional benefits warrant, are also discussed. (A)
Abstract