Since 1980, highway fatalities have declined substantially. In 1982, 7,730 fewer people died in highway accidents than in 1980. This represents a 14 percent reduction. A prior study by the authors established the economy as an important cause of this fatality reduction. "Socio-Economic Influences on Highway Fatalities: An Empirical Investigation", established the connections among economy, driving, and highway fatalities. That study found evidence that the economy has an influence on fatalities beyond its influence on total driving, suggesting that riskier discretionary driving is more sensitive to the economy than safer commuting driving. The objective of this study is to explore the connection between the economy and fatalities associated with riskier driving. Since no direct measures of the amount of risky driving are available, establishing economic surrogates would make the causes of fatality changes more understandable. Three high-risk fatality strata have been defined for analysis in this study: 1. fatalities involving young drivers (15 to 24 years old); 2. fatalities occurring late at night (9:00 p.m. to 3:00 a.m.); and 3. fatalities on rural roads. While these three strata obviously overlap, together they account for over 90 percent of the fatality decline between 1980 and 1982. (Author/publisher)
Abstract