This paper describes models using international data on traffic-related fatalities and various proxies for advances in medical care and technology. Correlations between these variables appear to be strong suggesting that advances in medical care and technology is one of the underlying factors that have reduced traffic-related fatalities in all developed countries over the last 20-30 years. This could represent a form of technology transfer between countries as advances in medical care are quickly adopted. One of the implications of this result is that future reductions in traffic-related fatalities may be more difficult to achieve. While medical advances are likely to continue, they may improve at a slower rate than during the last 30 years. On the other hand, demographic changes, such as fewer young people may continue to have a positive benefit on reducing traffic-related fatalities. This stream of research would benefit from a more detailed understanding of these relationships. For example, what is the process of dissemination of medical knowledge? How is this knowledge specifically linked to the type of injuries associated with serious vehicle crashes? Understanding these relationships can provide decision makers with the information to allocate "road safety" resources to the best means of reducing fatalities, which might mean investing these resources in medical care and delivery systems. This is especially true in rapidly developing countries where rapid increases in motorization may be exceeding the dissemination of new medical technologies needed to reduce fatalities. (A) For the covering abstract of the conference see ITRD no 207828. The reprints are also available at the web - http://www.vti.se/pdf/reports/K18APart1.pdf; http://www.vti.se/pdf/reports/K18APart2.pdf and http://www.vti.se/pdf/reports/K18APart3.pdf.
Abstract