The SMARA model, that is developed by TNO Inro for the Netherlands Institute for Spatial research, predicts bandwidths of travel times from door to door, which can be regarded as a measurement for reliability of transport. This report contains the starting points and results of a statistical analysis, that will lead to the input data for SMARA. In this statistical analysis four different situations are analysed that can cause variability in travel times: - demand, generic: influence of seasons - demand, specific: events - capacity, generic: weather - capacity, specific: accidents and road maintenance. Factors and probabilities are determined for these situations. The factors indicate how much the demand differs from the nominal demand and how much the capacity of the road differs from the capacity under normal circumstances. The factors are divided in several classes. The probabilities show how often the different classes occur. (Author/publisher)
Abstract