The SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research models regard the development in safety as the resultant of the development in mobility and risk (the road hazard per unit of traffic). These two components are modelled, rather than road hazard itself. Various scenarios for the development of mobility and for risk are calculated. A description and prognosis of the total number of fatalities and hospital admissions is given. Hospital admissions are analysed using data from accident statistics and from hospital registration files. Developments are described, according to road type and road maintenance authority. The predicted developments are indicated in a large number of graphs, up to the year 2010. graphs, up to the year 2010. The graphs are based on two mobility scenarios set against the situation in 1986. It is anticipated that in the year 2010, the overall motorised transport will increase by 35% and 45%, respectively. The following two variables were selected for the risk fact or: (1) an optimistic variable: an exponential drop in risk to ultimately zero accidents; and (2) a pessimistic variable: a logistic drop in risk to a level determined by the model.
Abstract