This chapter is written against a background where the private automobile is most travelers' mode of preference because it meets their perceived need for convenience, freedom, security, privacy, and status. The use of automobiles is increasing in most countries, while walking, cycling, and the use of public transport is generally declining. For example, in the United Kingdom (UK) the 1990's saw an 11% increase in the distance traveled by automobile, an 11% reduction in the distance traveled by local bus, and a 20% reduction in the distance walked. These trends seem to coincide with reduction in the real (wage rate adjusted) cost of automobile ownership and use and increases in the real cost of public transport use. These underlying cost trends are likely to continue because technological change and globalization bring reductions in the costs of automobile ownership and use while the price of public transport is more closely tied to the rising cost of labor. Recognizing this, the UK government's 10 year plan for transport assumed that, by 2010, the real cost of motoring would fall by 20% while the cost of bus and rail journeys would remain fairly constant. Nonetheless, the plant sought to achieve a reduction in congestion, a 10% growth in bus passenger journeys, a 50% growth in rail passenger-kilometers, and tripling in the number of cycle trips. It is against this background of government aspirations to overcome adverse trends that this chapter discusses methods to achieve changes in modal split.
Abstract