Using published data a study was made of changes in accident rates with time in a number of developing countries and it was found that in almost all the countries, there is a continuing downward trend in fatality and injury rates per vehicle, Kenya and Zambia being notable exceptions. Fatality rates were found to be related to vehicle ownership levels: the lower the vehicle ownership level, the higher the fatality rate per vehicle. In this relationship, vehicle ownership can be taken as an indication of both general economic and transport development. Fatality rates for the developing countries for the year 1968 were found to be similar in pattern to those for Britain between 1909 and 1938. The severity index, a measure of the number of fatalities as a proportion of total casualties, was found to be correlated with vehicle ownership levels: the lower the vehicle ownership level, the higher the severity index. A further examination of the severity index showed that it was closely affected by the extent of medical facilities in these countries. There was also some evidence that it was related to the proportion of motor cycles and scooters in each country. Possible methods of continuing road accident research in developing countries are suggested. (Author/publisher)
Abstract