What will the transport system look like if transport emissions are reduced by 80%-90% up to 2030? What policy instruments are available and when will they have to be implemented to realize these sharp emission reductions? These questions have been answered in the Netherlands pilot study for 2030, carried out as part of the OECD project on Environmentally Sustainable Transport (EST). This study is different from existing sustainable transport scenario studies. Firstly, very sharp emission reductions are assumed, i.e. an 80% CO2 emission reduction from transport and 90% NOx, VOC and PM10 emission reductions between 1990 and 2030. Secondly, not only is a "forecasting" business-as-usual scenario constructed, but also a "backcasting" sustainable scenario. The forecasting scenario is based on calculations using Dutch national transport models. Thirdly, an instrument package and implementation time path are described which - if implemented - would result in the necessary technological and behavioural changes to realize environmentally sustainable transport. Fourthly, the economic, social, cultural and spatial contexts of sustainable transport are documented. The study shows that environmental criteria can be met only under the following assumptions: (i) a great increase in technological developments; (ii) stringent behavioural adaptations; and (iii) changes in spatial and economic structures at international level. Within a transport instrument package, a system of traceable CO2 emission permits for passenger as well as freight transport will probably be the most important and (cost-)effective instrument to achieve the environmental criteria.
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