This report describes the results of the SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research's models: (1) the so-called macro model; and (2) the BIS-V model (Policy Information System for Road Safety). Both models treat road safety as an expression of the continuous growth in traffic volume and associated traffic risk. The main difference between them is that the macro model relates road safety exclusively to motorised traffic data, while the BIS-V model is based on performance in traffic and risk regarding various modes of traffic participation and age groups. Aggregation over the subgroups of the BIS-V model demonstrates that the prognoses for the number of mortalities and injuries in the year 2010 are somewhat less than the anticipated results given in the Dutch Traffic and Transport Structure Scheme (SVV) target figure for 2010. The figure offered by the macro model is half that number. Although the BIS-V calculations seem more plausible than those based on the macro model, the BIS-V prognosis might also offer a flattering impression. Trends observed with a number of road user categories demonstrate that the SVV objective is not feasible for all groups. However, the model calculations demonstrate that the third Long Term Policy for Road Safety's (MPV) road safety objectives remains feasible.
Abstract