Forecasts of telecommuting and its impacts typically overestimate the adoption of this arrangement. This paper reviews the problems of forecasting a complex solution to social problems, and critically assesses the wide range of forecasting approaches applied to telecommuting and the reasons for the upwards bias. The appeal of the concept, combined with various interests, are among the reasons for the optimistic forecasts. Methodologically, forecasts of telecommuting tend to emphasize technological change while underestimating the social implications that determine the adoption of such technologies. A choice theory is suggested as an alternative approach that can address issues related to human behavior in the context of technological change. The explanatory power of choice models is demonstrated and suggested for future analysis of technologies entailing extensive adaptation for both adopters and institutions.
Abstract