Four alternative future states of society or background scenarios are described, and future intercity transportation systems called transportation scenarios are outlined, one for each background scenario. A report is also presented of a quantitative analysis of the transportation scenarios, including patronage estimates for the various postulated intercity systems. The scenarios which have been developed for analyzing and evaluating alternative future intercity transportation technologies in the next 25 to 50 years is based on the analysis of relevant social and economic trends. A qualitative description of intercity transportation systems as well as how the systems developed from those in operation today are presented. The transportation scenario i is characterized by national emphasis on economic growth, encouragement of business, and substantial advances in research and technology that have been placed in service on a large scale mostly by private industry. The setting for scenario ii includes national restraint on big business, encouragement of small business, and decentralization of population. The third scenario is characterized by concensus-oriented public decision-making, increasing problems and inefficiencies in both the public and private sector, and little innovation. The setting for the fourth scenario is characterized by a strong government focusing its programs on achieving a variety of social welfare goals.
Abstract