In 2006 the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), of the World Bank (hereafter referred to as "the Bank"), undertook an evaluation of the previous ten years of Bank support for the transport sector in developing countries. In this paper the Bank's results from this work, led by the author, are discussed and a proposal is made for a re-focusing of activities in the sector. Over the next 35 years 2.5 billion people will be added to the currentworld population of 6.3 billion. In developing countries much of this growth will be urban; the number of cities exceeding a million inhabitants iswell on track to surge from 268 in 2000 to 358 by 2015. This expansion, coupled with continuing globalization and trade liberalization is expected to accelerate significantly the demand for the transportation of both people and goods. The motor industry, for example, may have reached maturity in the fully developed markets of North America, Europe, and Japan, but globally it is poised for huge expansions led by the motorization of China and India.. Similar growth is expected in the aviation and maritime industries; only railway expansion is likely to be at a slower rate. Although suchvibrant growth may appear welcome, the scenario has a darker side. Today's concerns about high fuel prices will inevitably be magnified. Road transport already accounts for nearly a quarter of the man-made gases contributing to climate change. In developing countries the problems of congestion and pollution are further compounded by poor road safety. Public transportoffers clear advantages for reducing congestion and pollution, and for increasing safety, but progress has often been disappointing because privatevehicle users rarely pay the true costs they impose on society, thus encouraging urban sprawl. At the same time, decentralized cities with lower population densities and long trip distances increase the cost of providing public transport; the urban poor, usually residing on city peripheries, tend to become marginalized by a lack of accessibility. Meanwhile the rapid growth of mega-cities is raising concern about worsening air quality the adverse effects of which fall disproportionately on the poor.The Bank's encouragement of greater private sector involvement in the transport sector where feasible is supported by this evaluation's findings. International experience generally, and Bank experience in particular, indicates that there is ample evidence that such participation has usually led to significantimprovements in transport sector performance in both industrial and developing countries. Even when countries prefer not to opt for full privatization in favor of more modest models of private sector participation, such as the creation of corporate agencies, significant progress can be made to ensure that such organizations run like businesses. This evaluation shows,however, that past Bank experience, with its relatively narrow, albeit successful primary focus on roads provides only a limited basis for the Bank's future response to emerging challenges. There needs to be a significantredeployment of resources and a re-examination of priorities. It is concluded that although past performance has been well-managed and effective, especially for intercity highway construction and rehabilitation, transportmust more strongly focus on key issues such as traffic congestion, air pollution, safety, and affordability. The Bank may have to reconsider its priorities to fully address these crucial social, political, and environmental issues, and focus more resources on improving basic rural access, providing better urban transport, and ensuring efficient multimodal transport. For the covering abstract see ITRD E139491.
Abstract