The objective of this paper is to model the evolution of road safety as a function of motorization level. The authors completed a country-level as well as a time-dependent analysis focusing on countries where data are available for a longer period of time (1965-2009). For the statistical analysis a function is proposed describing road safety trends (decline, turning, improvement). Two coefficients in the model are estimated for each country and for each year as well as their change over time is discussed. The results show that the shape of the curve changes over time. In some countries the decrease in the mortality rate gets slower over time, however, in others there is still a greater potential in road safety. Covering the present 27 EU member states and the time period from 1970 to 2010 this paper also investigates, whether latecomers, i.e. countries which reach a certain level of development later than some others, can have safety benefits from being late. In the more developed countries the decrease in the mortality rate gets slower over time. However, in the less developed countries there is still a bigger potential in road safety. The reasons behind the general positive trends in road safety are the continuous improvement in engineering solutions (better infrastructure, safer cars) as well as the road users who are better trained and skilled due to education and learning processes. It is shown that countries reaching a certain level of motorization later in time can improve their safety at a quicker pace. It is concluded that besides the factors mentioned above, the single market and the increased speed of the spreading of safety related information and knowledge are contributing to the decrease of the differences among European countries in their safety levels. This publication may be accessed by Internet users at: http://www.ictct.org/workshop.php?workshop_nr=35
Abstract