The report deals with the time series analysis of passenger flows on the Glasgow suburban rail network; its objective is to establish a modelling framework for the assessment of the effects of operational changes to the system, and the emphasis has been placed upon obtaining accurate estimates of changes in patronage. Fares elasticities were estimated for eighteen flows; they covered a range from zero to -1.1, with a median elasticity of -0.48. No significant difference was found between elasticities for different ticket types, but some evidence was obtained that elasticities vary with distance from Glasgow. The application of the model is demonstrated by a set of case studies, including an analysis of the effects of the electrification of the Hamilton circle in 1974, which had a marked effect on traffic. The report concludes that the time series analysis of ticket sales data can make a useful contribution to the assessment of the effects of operational changes. (Author/publisher)
Abstract