Time series models for road safety accident prediction.

Author(s)
Karlis, D. & Hermans, E.
Year
Abstract

In the present report we aim at providing a critical view to some existing time-series models for road safety accident prediction in order to allow for a better picture of the wide scope of the problem and also to be able to criticize approaches. A special focus is given to models that allow for disaggregate analysis, i.e. analysis that focus on different subgroups of the road safety population. Apart from simple time series models and discrete valued models, the currently fashionable and powerful state space models are investigated in more detail as they prove to be a promising technique for further analysis. Some issues related to data availability are also discussed. Conclusions and general comments with respect to the selection of appropriate models to forecast accident rates for different groups in Flanders for the forthcoming years are given. (Author/publisher)

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Publication

Library number
20131934 ST [electronic version only]
Source

Diepenbeek, Steunpunt Mobiliteit & Openbare Werken, Spoor Verkeersveiligheid, 2012, 27 p., 52 ref.; Report number RA-MOW-2011-020

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This publication is one of our other publications, and part of our extensive collection of road safety literature, that also includes the SWOV publications.