In this first paper, the author teams with a national expert in highway safety programs (Dr. Forrest Council) to predict how changes over the next 15 to 20 years in demography, vehicles, freight movements and other factors might affect highway safety without intervening countermeasures. The paper explores changes in the age distribution, household formation, vehicle ownership, labor force size and characteristics, and also includes the nature and structure of our economy, the movements of freight and its interactions with passenger travel. Beyond that there are pospective changes in public policies that seek to respond to national concerns for energy, security, green house gas emissions and sustainability. Producing outlooks and forecasts for the future in such an environment is fraught with multiple challenges - challenges that our society has faced before and succeeded in meeting. The movement 'Toward Zero Deaths' in this environment is a great challenge but achievable with effective management, effective programs and appropriate resources. (Author/publisher)
Abstract