Research was conducted to identify the factors that determine visitor attraction of rural outdoor recreational areas. The factors that were examined included the characteristics and locations of the recreational areas, and demographic and socioeconomic variables. The ultimate purpose is the formulation of a prediction model for the volume of traffic to be expected at planned new facilities, to permit rational planning of access highways and parking areas. The investigation concentrated on the development of a trip distribution model, a model to reflect the influence of socioeconomic factors, a park attractiveness model, and a new-facility prediction model. Three gravity models were compared, all using the same travel-time factors but different measures of the recreational trip generating factor. These measures were: (1) number of housing units, (2) number of households owning at least 1 automobile, and (3) measure 2 multiplied by a factor, called normalized weighted activity index, that indicates the relative frequency of outdoor recreational activities of the average county resident. These models were tested on a set of origin-destination data, counting visits to 4 Indiana state parks. The principle determinants of visits in Indiana were found to be measures of the capacity of the parks, and the size of the body of water available for water-oriented activities. A prediction model suitable for application to the planning of new recreational areas was described. It utilizes the trip distribution model, the weighted activity index, and the estimate of attraction potential. It was concluded that a prerequisite to the application of the model is a comprehensive regional survey of existing recreational facilities and their use patterns.
Abstract