The environmental effects of the transport sector are mainly determined by the supply of transport infrastructure. On the other hand, the supply is derived from the demand for greater mobility. Assuming that mobility has no environmental impacts, this 'vicious circle' has lead to a high level of both increasing travel demand and pollution. Considering the probable development of the next decade, policy now tries to satisfy the increasing demand of mobility and, at the same time, tries to decrease environmental impacts. Are we thus facing a never ending problem? In view of this phenomenon, the German FGSV issued a research document, in which the impacts of the long term demographic development (up to the year 2030) are examined. The basic findings of this report are: (a) Due to the demographic development it is assumed that the total amount of trips will decrease 25%. But this is only valid under the (unrealistic) precondition, that transport behaviour will not change; (b) Behavioural changes are expected in the field of private transport for retired persons because of an increase in car availability and usage; (c) Due to this fact (and to the decreasing share of younger people) public transport will decline, although massive investments are still ongoing; and (d) Due to the change of trip-purposes, a shift in the daily and weekly time-pattern is expected. It is concluded that in the long run there are substantial options to break through the barrier of the 'never ending problem' of traffic growth and environmental impacts - provided that measures to use these options are introduced now.
Abstract